By the Football Vets
So, the 2021 College Football Season is upon us. As SEC fans, we want to look at what the score for the Alabama vs Miami game on September 4 might be. Now of course we have our biased guess but let’s see if we can approach this analytically. Are you ready to run this experiment with us? If successful we will try to run it throughout the year and expand to more teams. If not we’ll go back to the drawing board.
Since we don’t really have playing statistics for these two teams we are going to base our analytic evaluation on the two teams’ roster statistics. We are going to compare heights, arm length, and weight. The idea is we can estimate centers of mass, impacts, and pass velocity, yeah a lot of crazy pseudo-technical stuff. So, with an engineer mind and probably a great many bad assumptions we are going to compare Alabama and Miami and use the resulting calculations to determine the likely score.
After looking at the height and weight of the two starting quarterbacks we have determined they will have about the same average throwing speed. Assuming the two quarterbacks have the same basic accuracy the passing game will come down to how much time each team’s O-line can give the QB to throw.
For both the Tide and the Canes the Defensive lines overpowers the opposing offensive line with Miami having an 8% advantage over the Tide. Though we suspect neither team will muster a passing game without first establishing the running game. Nonetheless the danger Miami presents to Bama is the deep threat and the Canes will do their best to exploit this slight imbalance for as long as they can; if they can.
The danger the Hurricanes must deal with is the Tide’s running game. As is the standard for Alabama, the crimson clad running backs outmatch their opponent’s defensive core by nearly 20%. In the second half of the game Miami’s defense will have worn down and the defensive backs will be constantly helping stop the running game.
So, let’s look at some of the numbers and see what it will net out in the end:
ALABAMA:
Running Game: 22% in Alabama’s favor = 3-5 Scores
Passing Game: 2% in Alabama’s favor = 1-2 Score
Max Alabama Score: 49
Min Alabama Score: 12
Mean: 30.5
MIAMI:
Running Game: No advantage to Miami in the Run = 0-1 score
Passing Game: Long Pass is the gives most advantage to Miami (1%-4%) = 2-3 scores
Max Miami Score: 28
Min Miami Score: 6
Mean: 17
Ultimately, the Hurricanes will crash against a rising Crimson Tide as the physical running game wears down Miami. What will look like a close game in the first half will turn into a final round knock-out when Bama’s pass game opens-up the game to a two-score lead. After crunching the numbers and taking the mean of the scenario scores, we THE FOOTBALL VETS have determined spread to be 30.5 to 17 in Bama’s favor of course.
Obviously, we don’t think it will make the WynnBet over/under for the game of 61.5 points, so if you are a gambler we think the under is the better bet. If this method gets us close to the ultimate score and play we will work to refine it. We think it would be great to give accurate predictions for upcoming CFB games. Maybe we could even run segment call THE VET BET. We hope you enjoyed this predictive foray and more importantly, we hope you are enjoying the opening of the College Football Season. We are and will.